Crisis risk dashboard Asia-Pacific

Author

Sean Ng

Published

August 10, 2024

Migration

Migrant barchart

Migrant network graph

Economic Stability

--- title: "Crisis risk dashboard Asia-Pacific" author: "Sean Ng" date: "10 August 2024" toc: true toc-location: left toc-depth: 4 format: html: page-layout: full code-tools: true self-contained: true --- ```{r setup, include=FALSE} knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = FALSE, warning = FALSE, message = FALSE, fig.width = 9.5) library(tidyverse) library(here) library(lubridate) library(patchwork) library(scales) library(sf) library(broom) library(treemapify) library(kableExtra) library(readxl) library(countrycode) library(viridis) library(ggraph) library(ggforce) library(plotly) library(widyr) library(tidytext) library(janitor) library(ggiraph) `%out%` <- Negate(`%in%`) options(scipen = 100) theme_set(theme_light()) show_col(viridis_pal(option = "cividis")(8)) country_list <- c("Afghanistan", "Bangladesh", "Bhutan", "Cambodia", "China", "Fiji", "Hong Kong", "India", "Indonesia", "Iran", "North Korea", "South Korea", "Laos", "Malaysia", "Maldives", "Mongolia", "Myanmar", "Nepal", "Pakistan", "Papua New Guinea", "Philippines", "Solomon Islands", "Sri Lanka", "Thailand", "Timor-Leste", "Vanuatu", "Vietnam") world_shape <- st_read(here("data", "world-administrative-boundaries", "world-administrative-boundaries.shp"), quiet = TRUE) population_estimates <- read_csv(here("data", "population_estimates.csv")) |> mutate(country_iso = countrycode(country, origin = "country.name", destination = "iso3c")) range01 <- function(x){(x-min(x))/(max(x)-min(x))} range_wna <- function(x){(x-min(x, na.rm = TRUE))/(max(x, na.rm = TRUE)-min(x, na.rm = TRUE))} ``` ## Migration ```{r} aggregation_list <- c("AFRICA", "ASIA", "Central and Southern Asia", "Central America", "Central Asia", "EUROPE", "Eastern Africa", "Eastern Asia", "Eastern Europe", "Eastern and South-Eastern Asia", "High-income countries", "LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN", "Land-locked Developing Countries (LLDC)", "Latin America and the Caribbean", "Least developed countries", "Less developed regions", "Less developed regions, excluding China", "Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries", "Low-income countries", "Lower-middle-income countries", "Middle-income countries", "Middle Africa", "NORTHERN AMERICA", "Northern Africa", "Northern Africa and Western Asia", "Northern Europe", "OCEANIA", "Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand)", "Small island developing States (SIDS)", "Sub-Saharan Africa", "Upper-middle-income countries", "Western Africa", "Western Asia", "Western Europe", "Western Sahara", "WORLD", "Australia and New Zealand", "Europe and Northern America", "Developed regions", "South-Eastern Asia", "Southern Asia", "Southern Europe", "Caribbean", "South America", "Other", "Southern Africa", "Melanesia", "Micronesia", "Polynesia") ``` ```{r warning=FALSE} migrant <- read_excel(here("data", "undesa_pd_2020_ims_stock_by_sex_destination_and_origin.xlsx"), sheet = 2, skip = 8) |> janitor::clean_names() |> pivot_longer(cols = 8:28, names_to = "name", values_to = "value") |> mutate(name = str_replace(name, "x", ""))|> mutate(sex = case_when( name %in% c("1990_8", "1995_9", "2000_10", "2005_11", "2010_12", "2015_13", "2020_14") ~ "total", name %in% c("1990_15", "1995_16", "2000_17", "2005_18", "2010_19", "2015_20", "2020_21") ~ "male", name %in% c("1990_22", "1995_23", "2000_24", "2005_25", "2010_26", "2015_27", "2020_28") ~ "female", TRUE ~ "wrong" )) |> mutate(year = as.numeric(str_sub(name, start = 1L, end = 4L))) |> rename(area_of_destination = region_development_group_country_or_area_of_destination, area_of_origin = region_development_group_country_or_area_of_origin) %>% mutate_at(vars(area_of_destination, area_of_origin), .funs = ~str_replace_all(., "\\*", "")) |> mutate(aggregation = ifelse( area_of_origin %in% aggregation_list | area_of_destination %in% aggregation_list, "yes", "no" )) %>% mutate_at(vars(area_of_destination, area_of_origin), .funs = ~case_when( . == "China, Hong Kong SAR" ~ "Hong Kong", . == "Dem. People's Republic of Korea" ~ "North Korea", . == "Iran (Islamic Republic of)" ~ "Iran", . == "Lao People's Democratic Republic" ~ "Laos", . == "Republic of Korea" ~ "South Korea", . == "Viet Nam" ~ "Vietnam", TRUE ~ . )) ``` ```{r} migrant_stock_changes <- migrant |> filter(aggregation == "no") |> filter(area_of_destination %in% country_list | area_of_origin %in% country_list) |> filter(value != 0 & sex != "total") |> group_by(area_of_origin, area_of_destination, year, sex) |> summarise(migrants = sum(value, na.rm = TRUE), .groups = "drop") |> pivot_wider(names_from = "year", values_from = "migrants", values_fill = 0, names_prefix = "migrants_") |> mutate(origin_iso = countrycode(area_of_origin, origin = "country.name", destination = "iso3c"), destination_iso = countrycode(area_of_destination, origin = "country.name", destination = "iso3c")) |> left_join( population_estimates |> filter(year %in% c(2000, 2010, 2015, 2020)) |> pivot_wider(names_from = year, values_from = population, names_prefix = "origin_population_") |> select(-country), by = c("origin_iso" = "country_iso")) |> left_join( population_estimates |> filter(year %in% c(2000, 2010, 2015, 2020)) |> pivot_wider(names_from = year, values_from = population, names_prefix = "destination_population_") |> select(-country), by = c("destination_iso" = "country_iso")) |> # Filtered small origin-destination pairs with small island territories without population data # 9 rows total, minimal filter(!is.na(origin_population_2020) & !is.na(destination_population_2020)) ``` ### Migrant barchart ```{r fig.height = 8} migrant_bars <- migrant_stock_changes |> group_by(area_of_origin, sex) |> summarise(origin_population_2020 = mean(origin_population_2020), migrants_2020 = sum(migrants_2020), .groups = "drop") |> mutate(migrants_pc = migrants_2020 / origin_population_2020 * 100) |> arrange(desc(migrants_pc)) |> filter(area_of_origin %in% country_list) |> group_by(area_of_origin) |> mutate(total_migrants_sort = sum(migrants_2020), total_migrants_pc = total_migrants_sort / origin_population_2020) |> ungroup() |> mutate(area_of_origin = fct_reorder(area_of_origin, total_migrants_pc), sex = str_to_title(sex), tooltip = paste0("Origin: ", area_of_origin, ", ", sex, "\n", "Migrants: ", comma(migrants_2020), "\n", "% Migrated: ", round(migrants_pc, digits = 2))) |> ggplot(aes(x = migrants_2020, y = area_of_origin, tooltip = tooltip)) + geom_col_interactive(aes(fill = migrants_pc)) + scale_fill_viridis(direction = -1, end= .95) + scale_x_continuous(labels = number_format(scale = 1 / 1000000, suffix = "M")) + facet_row(vars(sex), scales = "free_x", space = "free") + labs(title = "Number of persons who migrated, by country of origin, 2020", fill = "% Migrated", y = "", x = "Number of migrants 2020", caption = "Source: International Migrant Stock 2020") + theme(legend.position = c(.9, .7), strip.background = element_rect(fill = "black"), legend.title = element_text(size = 7), legend.text = element_text(size = 6), plot.title = element_text(size = 11)) girafe(ggobj = migrant_bars, options = list(opts_tooltip(use_fill = TRUE))) ``` ## Migrant network graph ```{r} test_df <- migrant_stock_changes |> select(area_of_origin, area_of_destination, sex, migrants_2020, origin_population_2020) |> pivot_wider(names_from = "sex", values_from = "migrants_2020", values_fill = 0) |> mutate(total_migrants_2020 = male + female, sex_ratio = round(male * 100 / female), sex_ratio = ifelse(is.infinite(sex_ratio), 0, sex_ratio), sex_ratio = ifelse(is.nan(sex_ratio), 0, sex_ratio)) |> arrange(desc(sex_ratio)) |> filter(sex_ratio != 0) |> mutate(n = 1, origin_population_pc = round(total_migrants_2020 / origin_population_2020 * 100, digits = 2)) |> filter(total_migrants_2020 > 100000 | origin_population_pc > 3) ``` ```{r} set.seed(2243) migrant_stock_changes |> select(area_of_origin, area_of_destination, sex, migrants_2020, origin_population_2020) |> pivot_wider(names_from = "sex", values_from = "migrants_2020", values_fill = 0) |> mutate(total_migrants_2020 = male + female, sex_ratio = round(male * 100 / female), sex_ratio = ifelse(is.infinite(sex_ratio), 0, sex_ratio), sex_ratio = ifelse(is.nan(sex_ratio), 0, sex_ratio)) |> arrange(desc(sex_ratio)) |> filter(sex_ratio != 0) |> mutate(n = 1, origin_population_pc = round(total_migrants_2020 / origin_population_2020 * 100, digits = 2)) |> ungroup() |> filter(total_migrants_2020 > 100000 | origin_population_pc > 3) |> igraph::graph_from_data_frame() |> ggraph(layout = "circle") + geom_edge_link(aes(edge_width = total_migrants_2020, alpha = origin_population_pc, edge_colour = sex_ratio, colour = sex_ratio), lineend = "round", check_overlap = TRUE) + scale_edge_colour_gradient2(low = "#5DC863FF", mid = "#F58C46FF", high = "#0D0887FF", midpoint = 1, trans = "log10") + scale_edge_width_continuous(range = c(.1, 7), labels = number_format(scale = 1 / 1000000, suffix = "M"), breaks = c(500000, 1000000, 2000000, 3000000)) + scale_alpha_continuous(range = c(.5, 1)) + geom_node_text(aes(label = name), size = 3) + geom_node_point(alpha = 0.1) + labs(title = "Origins and destinations of Asia-Pacific migrants in 2020", subtitle = "Thickness of line indicates number of migrants, trasparency indicates % of origin population migrated,\nSex ratio is # of males per 100 females. Only displaying the top origin-destination pairs", caption = "Source: International Migrant Stock 2020", edge_width = "No. Migrants", edge_colour = "Sex ratio", edge_alpha = "% Migrated") + theme(legend.key.size = unit(.48, "cm"), legend.title = element_text(size = 8), legend.text = element_text(size = 7), plot.subtitle = element_text(size = 10), plot.title = element_text(size = 11)) ``` ## Economic Stability ```{r} econ_stab <- read_csv(here("data", "economic_stability_data.csv")) # Correcting the wrong GDP per capita values gdp <- read_csv(here("data", "gdp_per_capita.csv")) |> clean_names() |> filter(!is.na(country_code)) |> mutate(country_name = case_when( str_detect(country_name, "Iran") ~ "Iran", str_detect(country_name, "Micronesia") ~ "Micronesia", country_name == "Viet Nam" ~ "Vietnam", TRUE ~ country_name )) ``` ```{r fig.height = 9.5, fig.width = 7.5} economic_stability <- econ_stab |> filter(Indicator_SubType != "GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2017 international $)") |> rbind(gdp |> pivot_longer(cols = c(x2012_yr2012:x2023_yr2023), names_to = "Year", values_to = "Value") |> mutate(Year = str_sub(Year, start = 2, end = 5), Indicator_SubType = "GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$)") |> select(Country_Name_Short = country_name, Indicator_SubType, Year, Value) |> mutate(Value = parse_number(Value), Year = parse_double(Year)) |> filter(!is.na(Value))) |> group_by(Country_Name_Short, Indicator_SubType) |> mutate(rescaled_value = range_wna(Value)) |> ungroup() %>% mutate(indicator_label = case_when( str_detect(Indicator_SubType, "Consumer price index") ~ "Consumer price index", Indicator_SubType == "GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$)" ~ "GDP per capita", str_detect(Indicator_SubType, "Total debt service") ~ "Total debt service", str_detect(Indicator_SubType, "Inflation") ~ "Inflation annual", TRUE ~ Indicator_SubType ), Value = case_when(Value <= 100 ~ round(Value, digits = 2), Value > 100 ~ (round(Value))), label = paste0(indicator_label, "\n", "Year: ", Year, "\n", "Value: ", Value)) |> filter(indicator_label != "Consumer price index") |> ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = rescaled_value, group = indicator_label)) + geom_line(aes(colour = indicator_label, tooltip = label)) + scale_colour_manual(values = c("#35B779FF", "#440154FF", "#EDD03AFF")) + scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(2012, 2024, 2)) + facet_wrap(~ Country_Name_Short, ncol = 6) + labs(title = "Macroeconomic indicator trends; hover for details", colour = "", y = "Rescaled value", x = "", caption = "Source: World Bank") + theme(legend.position = "top", axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 40, hjust = .8, vjust = 1, size = 6), axis.text.y = element_text(size = 6), plot.caption = element_text(hjust = .5), strip.background = element_rect(fill = "black"), element_text(size=6), plot.title = element_text(size = 11)) ggplotly(economic_stability, height = 750, tooltip = c("tooltip")) |> layout(legend = list(orientation = "h", x = 0.4, y = .06)) ```